Up +$200 last night yay! $884 account balance.


Quickie Sat picks - I swore off making picks on the weekend - but the regular season is so fresh and fun I can't resist! Of course my wife wanted me to clean the house before we went to a wedding today. The reason why is one of her friends is meeting at our house to go to the wedding together. Basically my wife wants me to have a clean house because her friend is going to stand in the doorway for 5 mins. Ugh.

So the new site I am using has all sorts of crazy options you can bet, including adding 14 points on a teaser! This is such a sucker bet but it's the weekend and I feel like splashing around

Basketball - 501 Atlanta Hawks +7 for Game
Basketball - 507 Memphis Grizzlies +16 for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets +20½ for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks under 219 for Game
Basketball - 511 Indiana Pacers +17 for Game
Basketball - 515 Portland Trail Blazers +16 for Game
Basketball - 517 Minnesota T'wolves +15½ for Game

So I need everyone of those conditions to happen for me to win the bet. Each one of those scenarios is pretty unlikely, but hitting all of them is tough. $50 to win $30

Basketball - 510 Milwaukee Bucks team total under 53½ -110 for 1st Half
$55 to win 50

So this is technically against my deal of betting against the Bucks, but this is an over under bet so I feel I can slide a bit on this. We are a bottom 3 offense and even though Brookyln isn't a great defense and playing on a back to back - 54 points for the Bucks in the first half is a ton of points. It will be tough for us to crack that number.

514 San Antonio Spurs team total under 56 -110 for 1st Half
$110 to win 100

SA has been an offensive powerhouse the first couple games, but this is still a defensive team and 56 points in the first half is a ton for them. Should be 3 points lower.

Charlotte Hornets team total over 50 -105 for 1st Half
$50 to win 30

50 points seems low for the Hornets even though they are playing a good defensive team in Boston. Boston has a great def eff rating, but since the play at a faster pace, the opposing team can put up decent points.

ETA -

Basketball - 504 Charlotte Hornets +11 for Game
Basketball - 507 Memphis Grizzlies +10 for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets +15½ for Game

$110 to win 100 
Ok this for sure goes against my rule of betting against the Bucks. Whoops. This might be the last game the Bucks are favored in for a long time. Them winning a game by 16 points seems like a fantasy world. The other 2 games I like their chances straight up, but really love them in a tease.

Quick update to friday -

I bet the Nets -1 more 3PM over Pacers
and Suns + 2 1/2 more 3PM over Thunder

Absolutely love these bets. Unfortunately on these props I can only bet $50 each. The nets shot 37 - 3 pointers in their first game. No way they lose, and the Thunder don't have a single 3 point shooter on the team not sure why they are giving + 2 1/2

So there is no way the Warriors lose tonight right? Right??

After getting ass handed to them by the Spurs, the Warriors had to eat some humble pie. Warriors defense was a train wreck - Spurs got every shot they wanted and got little resistance at the rim from the Warriors. To make things worse, the Spurs collected a ton of their missed shots and destroyed GS on the glass.

The Pelicans are not the Spurs. (Duh) The Spurs are a top 3 team in the league while the Pelicans are probably closer to a bottom 5 team, even with AD. Solomon Hill and Etwaun Moore are nice role players (I wish the Bucks had those guys instead of Miles Fucking Plumlee) but if those 2 dudes are your 2nd and 3rd best players, you have a really bad team. Even if AD scores 70, the Warriors aren't losing to this crap team. As a result I am throwing the Warriors moneyline into a bunch of parlays and teasers! Now to find the other games I like.

2 days ago I got burned by the Lakers. The Rockets were blowing teams away in preseason and I thought the Lakers were the worst team in the league. Whelp $250 down the shoot gave me a modicum of respect for the Lakers. But they are playing the Jazz tonight who I think is a top 5 team in the west. The Jazz are built for the regular season, and are built to win games like tonight at home against the Lakers.

Basketball - 714 Utah Jazz -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Golden State Warriors -2 for Game

$250 to win $108. That is a lot juice to give up, but I will eat my hat if either the Lakers or Pelicans win tonight. Both games should be blow outs.

Basketball - 705 Indiana Pacers -265 for Game
Basketball - 714 Utah Jazz -430 for Game
Basketball - 715 Golden State Warriors -670 for Game

Ok so I REALLY think there is no chance either the Jazz or GS loses. So I am adding the Pacers moneyline to the mix because like I said before the season - I am riding with the Pacers. And with how impressive Myles Turner looked in his first game, I see no reason not to.

$100 to win $95

Basketball - 716 New Orleans Pelicans team total under 54 -110 for 1st Half

I am all in on Golden State today! After making this bet I got a little nervous because I feel like a bandwagon Charles Barkley public bettor. I like this one a lot because it gives you solid odds on Golden State rebounding defensively and keeping the Pelicans to a respectable number.

$110 to win $100

That's it for now.

Check back later because I stare at these lines all afternoon I'll probably make a few more bets. I thought Miami was underrated coming into the season, and I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger against Orlando in the first game. Might toss some money their way, or I might light some more money on fire with the Rox. Their over under for points is 109 1/2, seems it's tough envisioning them not scoring that every game. They scored 74 points first half against the Lakers for fuck's sake.

Tough loss yesterday. I had the Rockets in 2 of my money line Parlay's and they blew it against the Lakers. James Harden is my most hated player in the league, and now this further solidifies it. I would have been up $410 on the night, but instead I was down $50 - a $460 dollar swing. OUCH.

I didn't get to watch all the games last night, but did catch a few. Quick thoughts -

- Dallas yet again is a tough out. Fought tooth and nail and almost pulled out a W in Indy. Going to punish bad teams and lose to the good teams. Myles Turner is the real deal. Absolutely torched Dallas on offense and provided awesome rim protection the whole game. The most interesting development is the Pacers veterans ran a couple plays late in the game for Turner with the game on the line - and it paid off. Turner knocked down open shots to win it. Finished with 30 points 16 rebounds 4 blocks and 2 steals. On a side note the Ellis/Teague back court combo is going to struggle defensively. Ellis again was clueless against cutters - terrible against the Mavs

- My Bucks were absolutely trashed by the Hornets. Mostly due to the Bucks roster catastrophe created by John Hammond. We are in year 9 of the Hambone era and we still blow donkey dick. Ugh. Michael Beasly, Jason Terry, Rashard Vaugn all played meaningful mins and were all a disaster. Plus we hve 40 mil tied up in centers, and all of them aren't very good. None of them can rebound or play any defense - astonishing. Bet against the Bucks early and often.

- Rox at Lakers is tough to get a gauge on the teams after that game. I mean neither team was even trying to play defense. Rockets had 74 points at half time! Luke Walton looked confused on how little defense was played. Randal looked pretty good to me. Guarded Harden one on one a couple times and did well - including blocking a Harden shot with out fouling. Pretty impressive. I thought the Lakers would be the worst team in the league, but maybe they won't be.

- Caught the Kings and Suns game. The Suns are just a mess. Their forwards and centers are just atrocious right now. I like Chriss and Bender's future - but they are terrible NBA players right now. Dudley and Chandler look cooked as well. Booker is an absolute star in the making, he is going to have to suffer through some bad seasons with the supporting cast around him. Kings look better than last, year but it was hard to tell if it was good Kings or just bad Suns.

****

So for this blog and for keeping track purposes, I am going to post my account balance on an on going basis. So I started a new site I never used before this season Heritage Sports. I uploaded $150 for preseason and finished up $230. I added another $350 for the regular season. Combined with my future bet and regular season losses I am currently sitting at $641. I will keep posting my account balance to show how good of a job I am doing.

I like making first half bets on over under's. I feel like I am not very good with figuring out total game score, but first half for a specific team, I am pretty confident. I made two of those for tonight

Spurs over 51 first half @ Kings
Blazers over 51 1/2 vs Clips
$110 to win $100 each

Spurs offensive explosion against GS was unexpected. I do think replacing Duncan with Gasol will help out their offense. Plus guys like Simmons and Anderson are more experienced and comfortable in their system. The Spurs might be a sneaky over bet for the next couple weeks until the public realizes the Spurs are a good offensive team.

Blazers just put up 113 on a much better defensive team in the Jazz. It's tough to envision the Clippers locking down the Blazers, especially on the road.

Basketball - 506 Portland Trail Blazers +10½ for Game
Basketball - 507 San Antonio Spurs -½ for Game

+8 point 2 team teaser. $100 to win $44. The Spurs will lose 15-20 or so games this year, but I don't one of those losses will be to the Kings. I am kinda down on the Clips this year as a juggernaut type of team, so while they might win, I don't expect them to blow out the Blazers in Portland.

Gotta a TON of action going on for tonight.

Basketball - 704 Indiana Pacers -1½ for Game
Basketball - 719 Houston Rockets -1 for Game
$70 to win $50. 5 point teaser.

Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Denver Nuggets +11½ for Game
$100 to win $40 8 point teaser

Basketball - 701 Miami Heat +12 for Game
Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Denver Nuggets +10 for Game
$100 to win $83 8 point teaser

Basketball - 704 Indiana Pacers -265 for Game
Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -430 for Game
Basketball - 719 Houston Rockets -275 for Game
$150 to win $197 three team Moneyline parlay

Again with the teasers! I kinda liked how preseason made me pick winners with out the crutch of parlays and teasers. Even so I think I have a good combination of picks tonight. The Pacers and Houston I will probably be riding with the first couple games as I think they are undervalued and going to surprise people. OKC is playing @ Philly and I don't think there is a chance they lose. Boston is favored by 13 points against Brooklyn, that is what the OKC vs Philly line should be too instead of 8 1/2

Basketball - 710 Memphis Grizzlies -130 for Game (at home vs T Wolves)

$97.50 to win $75
I get the T Wolves hype train. Towns is beyond amazing. He is the next great super star in this league. Tibs is a good coach, Wiggins and Lavine are exciting ... I get all that. I just don't see an above .500 team. The Griz are still a good veteran team, and I think they win tonight.

Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder/Philadelphia 76ers under 208 -105 for Game

$52.50 to win $50
Moar unders! I still can't seem to get away from betting unders. The 76ers are going to be absolutely dreadful. They are going to struggle to score 90 points every night. Especially with Bayless out for a month.

Basketball - 707 Brooklyn Nets/Boston Celtics under 219½ for Game Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder/Philadelphia 76ers under 216 for Game

$50 to win $41

Final teaser for the night. Really love all 3 of these bets, especially with the added points. Kinda wanted to have some action on the Nets so I can watch their game tonight. 

Also got in $10 on 35-1 for Sabonis to win ROTY. I wanted to have some action on this. I think Embiid will win it, but the odds aren't sexy enough. Sabonis will be the starting PF and getting big mins on a team that should win around 40-47 wins. I think there is solid chance the voters reward winning. 

$620 worth of action tonight! Be sure to also read my earlier recap from last night as well. 

Gambling is hard.

I had the right read on the Spurs @ Golden State game last night. The Spurs getting +9 I thought was completely outrageous. In my mind Golden State was not going to nutz on the Spurs and have their way with them. I was completely right on all of that. Golden State only scored 100 points.

What I did not foresee happening, was the Spurs laying the absolute smack down, and blitzkrieging GS to a tune of 129 points, and in the process, blowing all my under bets I also had on the game. Ugh. My struggles to predict over/unders from the preseason have continued.

Wasn't too bad though, only down $50.

My take aways from that game is Golden State is going to continue to get destroyed on the glass all season. SA out rebounded GS by 23 and dominated the offensive glass 21 - 8. Golden State's offense will be fine, early on they missed a ton of wide open looks and layups, and the Spurs are the best defensive team in the league. GS was unprepared to play against a great team and they showed it. Team chemistry and body language looked like crap too. Still think they will pile up a ton of regular season wins, however getting the #1 seed might not be a gimmie anymore.

The Spurs on the other hand are the more interesting team to think about. If you knew nothing about the NBA before watching the game, you would think that the Spurs were the super team. Scoring 129 was preposterous to fathom before the game. They only scored that many points all of last year 1 time.

-Said it yesterday, who the hell is going to guard Aldridge from GS? He dominated GS inside and outside all game.
- Simmons played fantastic. Defensively he was every where - including his own Lebron impersonation - hustling back for a chase down block on Curry.
- Parker also played well. And while he probably won't try as hard as he did yesterday on most nights it was really great to see.
- Gasol struggled defensively. Every time he made a defensive miscue - Pop immediately called a time out. Gasol hasn't been a good defender in recent years, but by midseason he might be.

Jazz vs Portland Quick thoughts -

- Jazz were out 2 of their starters and still played extremely well. How many teams can just lose two of their best players and keep rolling? I think they are going to be a juggernaut in the regular season. Still too young to make some noise in the playoffs though.
- Portland has an embarrassment of riches at forward. Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, Turner, Vonleh. Those guys flanking CJ/Dame are going to be super fun to watch. They are a Tristan Thompson/Tyson Chandler type away from being a legit contender.
- The Jazz really struggled to create offense with out George Hill in the game in the first half. He is probably the one guy they can't afford to get injured.
- Joe Johnson played great. The Jazz are going to need his offense with Favors and Hayward out and he stepped up to the plate.

Knicks vs Cavs even quicker thoughts -

- Knicks impressed me early on. Their starting 5 will make them competitive most nights.
- Porzinger is just a God damn stud and so much fun to watch.
- Their problem is their bench is pretty bad last night. Jennings is a nice back up PG, but man if he isn't shooting well, he really tanks the team. O' Quin should be better than he is, but just kinda sucks. Low IQ player. I did like what I seen from Kuzminskas last night. He is a 27 year old rookie from Lithuania and looked like he belonged in the NBA.  
- The Cavs are the Cavs. They are a powerhouse and looked great in the second half.

I will post again this afternoon with my picks for tonight.

Update: Still loading up on the Spurs defense! I added another $50 on Golden State to score less than 55 points in the first half.