I have never been a fan of Daily Fantasy.

It always seemed so lame. It felt like gambling for kids. If I was 15 I would absolutely love that shit. OMG I have Chris Paul, Lebron and Jabari Parker on my team! How could I lose?!

It just seemed so random too. Even if your team went nutz, invariably, 50 other people had even better teams. Plus it seemed sort of shady. You read stories about how Draft Kings guys were playing on Fan Dual and vice versa raking in tons of cash. I just didn't trust that shit.

Until last week, one of my buddies popped off 5k in a tournament he entered for football. And of course my buddy is not the sharpest tools in the shed. It kinda reinforced my narrative that it's just random luck and any one can win...... but still $5,000 bucks is $5,000 fucking bucks. It reminded me I still have some money in my Yahoo daily account. I chose Yahoo last year because I have always been a yahoo fantasy player, and love me some Woj. If I was going to donate money to DFS, I wanted it to be to yahoo. So I am getting back into it. Well until I piss away this last $50, then I'll be back to hating DFS.

Another positive night +200 to get the account to $1,089!

Sunday picks -

Not sure what to make of these two bets. Spurs at Miami total over under is 193, but the first half over under is 91. For some reason they have the projecting scoring at 8 more points than 2nd half? The Jazz @ Clippers have the same type of line 194 total and 91 1/2 first half? Seems super fishy, maybe Vegas knows something or heavy hitters are betting the under? Who knows - I'm taking the free extra points and seeing how it goes. + I like the OKC under first half against Lakers. Lakers are bad defensively, but OKC is going to have problems scoring and 57 points is a lot.

Basketball - 701 Utah Jazz/Los Angeles Clippers over 91½ -115 for 1st Half
Basketball - 707 San Antonio Spurs/Miami Heat over 91 -110 for 1st Half
Oklahoma City Thunder team total under 56½ -110 for 1st Half

Up +$200 last night yay! $884 account balance.


Quickie Sat picks - I swore off making picks on the weekend - but the regular season is so fresh and fun I can't resist! Of course my wife wanted me to clean the house before we went to a wedding today. The reason why is one of her friends is meeting at our house to go to the wedding together. Basically my wife wants me to have a clean house because her friend is going to stand in the doorway for 5 mins. Ugh.

So the new site I am using has all sorts of crazy options you can bet, including adding 14 points on a teaser! This is such a sucker bet but it's the weekend and I feel like splashing around

Basketball - 501 Atlanta Hawks +7 for Game
Basketball - 507 Memphis Grizzlies +16 for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets +20½ for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets/Milwaukee Bucks under 219 for Game
Basketball - 511 Indiana Pacers +17 for Game
Basketball - 515 Portland Trail Blazers +16 for Game
Basketball - 517 Minnesota T'wolves +15½ for Game

So I need everyone of those conditions to happen for me to win the bet. Each one of those scenarios is pretty unlikely, but hitting all of them is tough. $50 to win $30

Basketball - 510 Milwaukee Bucks team total under 53½ -110 for 1st Half
$55 to win 50

So this is technically against my deal of betting against the Bucks, but this is an over under bet so I feel I can slide a bit on this. We are a bottom 3 offense and even though Brookyln isn't a great defense and playing on a back to back - 54 points for the Bucks in the first half is a ton of points. It will be tough for us to crack that number.

514 San Antonio Spurs team total under 56 -110 for 1st Half
$110 to win 100

SA has been an offensive powerhouse the first couple games, but this is still a defensive team and 56 points in the first half is a ton for them. Should be 3 points lower.

Charlotte Hornets team total over 50 -105 for 1st Half
$50 to win 30

50 points seems low for the Hornets even though they are playing a good defensive team in Boston. Boston has a great def eff rating, but since the play at a faster pace, the opposing team can put up decent points.

ETA -

Basketball - 504 Charlotte Hornets +11 for Game
Basketball - 507 Memphis Grizzlies +10 for Game
Basketball - 509 Brooklyn Nets +15½ for Game

$110 to win 100 
Ok this for sure goes against my rule of betting against the Bucks. Whoops. This might be the last game the Bucks are favored in for a long time. Them winning a game by 16 points seems like a fantasy world. The other 2 games I like their chances straight up, but really love them in a tease.

Quick update to friday -

I bet the Nets -1 more 3PM over Pacers
and Suns + 2 1/2 more 3PM over Thunder

Absolutely love these bets. Unfortunately on these props I can only bet $50 each. The nets shot 37 - 3 pointers in their first game. No way they lose, and the Thunder don't have a single 3 point shooter on the team not sure why they are giving + 2 1/2

So there is no way the Warriors lose tonight right? Right??

After getting ass handed to them by the Spurs, the Warriors had to eat some humble pie. Warriors defense was a train wreck - Spurs got every shot they wanted and got little resistance at the rim from the Warriors. To make things worse, the Spurs collected a ton of their missed shots and destroyed GS on the glass.

The Pelicans are not the Spurs. (Duh) The Spurs are a top 3 team in the league while the Pelicans are probably closer to a bottom 5 team, even with AD. Solomon Hill and Etwaun Moore are nice role players (I wish the Bucks had those guys instead of Miles Fucking Plumlee) but if those 2 dudes are your 2nd and 3rd best players, you have a really bad team. Even if AD scores 70, the Warriors aren't losing to this crap team. As a result I am throwing the Warriors moneyline into a bunch of parlays and teasers! Now to find the other games I like.

2 days ago I got burned by the Lakers. The Rockets were blowing teams away in preseason and I thought the Lakers were the worst team in the league. Whelp $250 down the shoot gave me a modicum of respect for the Lakers. But they are playing the Jazz tonight who I think is a top 5 team in the west. The Jazz are built for the regular season, and are built to win games like tonight at home against the Lakers.

Basketball - 714 Utah Jazz -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Golden State Warriors -2 for Game

$250 to win $108. That is a lot juice to give up, but I will eat my hat if either the Lakers or Pelicans win tonight. Both games should be blow outs.

Basketball - 705 Indiana Pacers -265 for Game
Basketball - 714 Utah Jazz -430 for Game
Basketball - 715 Golden State Warriors -670 for Game

Ok so I REALLY think there is no chance either the Jazz or GS loses. So I am adding the Pacers moneyline to the mix because like I said before the season - I am riding with the Pacers. And with how impressive Myles Turner looked in his first game, I see no reason not to.

$100 to win $95

Basketball - 716 New Orleans Pelicans team total under 54 -110 for 1st Half

I am all in on Golden State today! After making this bet I got a little nervous because I feel like a bandwagon Charles Barkley public bettor. I like this one a lot because it gives you solid odds on Golden State rebounding defensively and keeping the Pelicans to a respectable number.

$110 to win $100

That's it for now.

Check back later because I stare at these lines all afternoon I'll probably make a few more bets. I thought Miami was underrated coming into the season, and I am kicking myself for not pulling the trigger against Orlando in the first game. Might toss some money their way, or I might light some more money on fire with the Rox. Their over under for points is 109 1/2, seems it's tough envisioning them not scoring that every game. They scored 74 points first half against the Lakers for fuck's sake.

Tough loss yesterday. I had the Rockets in 2 of my money line Parlay's and they blew it against the Lakers. James Harden is my most hated player in the league, and now this further solidifies it. I would have been up $410 on the night, but instead I was down $50 - a $460 dollar swing. OUCH.

I didn't get to watch all the games last night, but did catch a few. Quick thoughts -

- Dallas yet again is a tough out. Fought tooth and nail and almost pulled out a W in Indy. Going to punish bad teams and lose to the good teams. Myles Turner is the real deal. Absolutely torched Dallas on offense and provided awesome rim protection the whole game. The most interesting development is the Pacers veterans ran a couple plays late in the game for Turner with the game on the line - and it paid off. Turner knocked down open shots to win it. Finished with 30 points 16 rebounds 4 blocks and 2 steals. On a side note the Ellis/Teague back court combo is going to struggle defensively. Ellis again was clueless against cutters - terrible against the Mavs

- My Bucks were absolutely trashed by the Hornets. Mostly due to the Bucks roster catastrophe created by John Hammond. We are in year 9 of the Hambone era and we still blow donkey dick. Ugh. Michael Beasly, Jason Terry, Rashard Vaugn all played meaningful mins and were all a disaster. Plus we hve 40 mil tied up in centers, and all of them aren't very good. None of them can rebound or play any defense - astonishing. Bet against the Bucks early and often.

- Rox at Lakers is tough to get a gauge on the teams after that game. I mean neither team was even trying to play defense. Rockets had 74 points at half time! Luke Walton looked confused on how little defense was played. Randal looked pretty good to me. Guarded Harden one on one a couple times and did well - including blocking a Harden shot with out fouling. Pretty impressive. I thought the Lakers would be the worst team in the league, but maybe they won't be.

- Caught the Kings and Suns game. The Suns are just a mess. Their forwards and centers are just atrocious right now. I like Chriss and Bender's future - but they are terrible NBA players right now. Dudley and Chandler look cooked as well. Booker is an absolute star in the making, he is going to have to suffer through some bad seasons with the supporting cast around him. Kings look better than last, year but it was hard to tell if it was good Kings or just bad Suns.

****

So for this blog and for keeping track purposes, I am going to post my account balance on an on going basis. So I started a new site I never used before this season Heritage Sports. I uploaded $150 for preseason and finished up $230. I added another $350 for the regular season. Combined with my future bet and regular season losses I am currently sitting at $641. I will keep posting my account balance to show how good of a job I am doing.

I like making first half bets on over under's. I feel like I am not very good with figuring out total game score, but first half for a specific team, I am pretty confident. I made two of those for tonight

Spurs over 51 first half @ Kings
Blazers over 51 1/2 vs Clips
$110 to win $100 each

Spurs offensive explosion against GS was unexpected. I do think replacing Duncan with Gasol will help out their offense. Plus guys like Simmons and Anderson are more experienced and comfortable in their system. The Spurs might be a sneaky over bet for the next couple weeks until the public realizes the Spurs are a good offensive team.

Blazers just put up 113 on a much better defensive team in the Jazz. It's tough to envision the Clippers locking down the Blazers, especially on the road.

Basketball - 506 Portland Trail Blazers +10½ for Game
Basketball - 507 San Antonio Spurs -½ for Game

+8 point 2 team teaser. $100 to win $44. The Spurs will lose 15-20 or so games this year, but I don't one of those losses will be to the Kings. I am kinda down on the Clips this year as a juggernaut type of team, so while they might win, I don't expect them to blow out the Blazers in Portland.

Gotta a TON of action going on for tonight.

Basketball - 704 Indiana Pacers -1½ for Game
Basketball - 719 Houston Rockets -1 for Game
$70 to win $50. 5 point teaser.

Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Denver Nuggets +11½ for Game
$100 to win $40 8 point teaser

Basketball - 701 Miami Heat +12 for Game
Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game
Basketball - 715 Denver Nuggets +10 for Game
$100 to win $83 8 point teaser

Basketball - 704 Indiana Pacers -265 for Game
Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -430 for Game
Basketball - 719 Houston Rockets -275 for Game
$150 to win $197 three team Moneyline parlay

Again with the teasers! I kinda liked how preseason made me pick winners with out the crutch of parlays and teasers. Even so I think I have a good combination of picks tonight. The Pacers and Houston I will probably be riding with the first couple games as I think they are undervalued and going to surprise people. OKC is playing @ Philly and I don't think there is a chance they lose. Boston is favored by 13 points against Brooklyn, that is what the OKC vs Philly line should be too instead of 8 1/2

Basketball - 710 Memphis Grizzlies -130 for Game (at home vs T Wolves)

$97.50 to win $75
I get the T Wolves hype train. Towns is beyond amazing. He is the next great super star in this league. Tibs is a good coach, Wiggins and Lavine are exciting ... I get all that. I just don't see an above .500 team. The Griz are still a good veteran team, and I think they win tonight.

Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder/Philadelphia 76ers under 208 -105 for Game

$52.50 to win $50
Moar unders! I still can't seem to get away from betting unders. The 76ers are going to be absolutely dreadful. They are going to struggle to score 90 points every night. Especially with Bayless out for a month.

Basketball - 707 Brooklyn Nets/Boston Celtics under 219½ for Game Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder -½ for Game Basketball - 713 Oklahoma City Thunder/Philadelphia 76ers under 216 for Game

$50 to win $41

Final teaser for the night. Really love all 3 of these bets, especially with the added points. Kinda wanted to have some action on the Nets so I can watch their game tonight. 

Also got in $10 on 35-1 for Sabonis to win ROTY. I wanted to have some action on this. I think Embiid will win it, but the odds aren't sexy enough. Sabonis will be the starting PF and getting big mins on a team that should win around 40-47 wins. I think there is solid chance the voters reward winning. 

$620 worth of action tonight! Be sure to also read my earlier recap from last night as well. 

Gambling is hard.

I had the right read on the Spurs @ Golden State game last night. The Spurs getting +9 I thought was completely outrageous. In my mind Golden State was not going to nutz on the Spurs and have their way with them. I was completely right on all of that. Golden State only scored 100 points.

What I did not foresee happening, was the Spurs laying the absolute smack down, and blitzkrieging GS to a tune of 129 points, and in the process, blowing all my under bets I also had on the game. Ugh. My struggles to predict over/unders from the preseason have continued.

Wasn't too bad though, only down $50.

My take aways from that game is Golden State is going to continue to get destroyed on the glass all season. SA out rebounded GS by 23 and dominated the offensive glass 21 - 8. Golden State's offense will be fine, early on they missed a ton of wide open looks and layups, and the Spurs are the best defensive team in the league. GS was unprepared to play against a great team and they showed it. Team chemistry and body language looked like crap too. Still think they will pile up a ton of regular season wins, however getting the #1 seed might not be a gimmie anymore.

The Spurs on the other hand are the more interesting team to think about. If you knew nothing about the NBA before watching the game, you would think that the Spurs were the super team. Scoring 129 was preposterous to fathom before the game. They only scored that many points all of last year 1 time.

-Said it yesterday, who the hell is going to guard Aldridge from GS? He dominated GS inside and outside all game.
- Simmons played fantastic. Defensively he was every where - including his own Lebron impersonation - hustling back for a chase down block on Curry.
- Parker also played well. And while he probably won't try as hard as he did yesterday on most nights it was really great to see.
- Gasol struggled defensively. Every time he made a defensive miscue - Pop immediately called a time out. Gasol hasn't been a good defender in recent years, but by midseason he might be.

Jazz vs Portland Quick thoughts -

- Jazz were out 2 of their starters and still played extremely well. How many teams can just lose two of their best players and keep rolling? I think they are going to be a juggernaut in the regular season. Still too young to make some noise in the playoffs though.
- Portland has an embarrassment of riches at forward. Crabbe, Aminu, Harkless, Turner, Vonleh. Those guys flanking CJ/Dame are going to be super fun to watch. They are a Tristan Thompson/Tyson Chandler type away from being a legit contender.
- The Jazz really struggled to create offense with out George Hill in the game in the first half. He is probably the one guy they can't afford to get injured.
- Joe Johnson played great. The Jazz are going to need his offense with Favors and Hayward out and he stepped up to the plate.

Knicks vs Cavs even quicker thoughts -

- Knicks impressed me early on. Their starting 5 will make them competitive most nights.
- Porzinger is just a God damn stud and so much fun to watch.
- Their problem is their bench is pretty bad last night. Jennings is a nice back up PG, but man if he isn't shooting well, he really tanks the team. O' Quin should be better than he is, but just kinda sucks. Low IQ player. I did like what I seen from Kuzminskas last night. He is a 27 year old rookie from Lithuania and looked like he belonged in the NBA.  
- The Cavs are the Cavs. They are a powerhouse and looked great in the second half.

I will post again this afternoon with my picks for tonight.

Update: Still loading up on the Spurs defense! I added another $50 on Golden State to score less than 55 points in the first half.

The regular season is finally here!!!! Finally no more poop NFL and MLB to struggle through. One nice thing I have been missing in the preseason is the ability to do "teasers". If you are unfamiliar of what a teaser is, from wiki -

"A teaser (or a "two-team teaser") is a type of gambling bet that allows the bettor to combine his bets on two different games.[1] The bettor can adjust the point spreads for the two games, but realizes a lower return on the bets in the event of a win.

A teaser is a type of wager used in sports betting, most commonly in basketball and football.[2] This wager is a multi-team wager, allowing the bettor to choose a minimum of two teams up to, in some cases, 15 teams. The bettor will get points on his favor to add or subtract to the teams chosen to improve the point spread chosen. "

For a detailed example

 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Teaser_(gambling)

I like these types of bets in the NBA for a couple different reasons. The guys who come up with the NBA lines on a daily basis are scary good at getting the line exactly right or being extremely close. Part of the reason being is there are sooooo many possessions in the NBA, so it is much easier to predict than the NFL. The chances for high variances plays are also less in the NFL. If a QB throws a pick 6 in the red zone, that is a huge swing in the outcome of the game. There is no single play in the NBA that is an equivalent.

So with that in mind if you can get +5, +8, +10, or even +14 points towards an out come of a game, even if you are wrong on the direction, you can sometimes be ok because the Vegas guys aren't consistently way off in their predictions.

Which brings me to my first bet of the 2016-2017 season.

Basketball - 502 Cleveland Cavaliers -1½ for Game
Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs +17 for Game
Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs/Golden State Warriors under 221 for Game

For $100 -115

So again to explain to some people who might not understand what this means. I need all 3 of the above scenarios to happen. This bet added +8 to my picks. The other part of my reasoning for liking teasers is there are some scenarios in which I think it will be extremely unlikely to happen.

Pop isn't going to allow his team to lose by 18 points. Even if they are down big, he will make his team play hard and finish strong. Plus who the fuck is going to guard Aldrige? Zaza? Please. Same for the Spurs defense, they were the best defensive team of all time last year. I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't have a single game go over 221 last year. And the Knicks are way overrated in general and aren't going to win on the Cavs ring ceremony night

There is another way to describe the above bet - a "sweetheart" bet. Meaning it is a pussy bet. There are a lot of people who think this is a losing strategy over time. I don't disagree that it is a pussy bet. It is much tougher making straight up bets. Having said that, I think in the NBA, you can pick spots where it can be effective.

Basketball - 502 Cleveland Cavaliers -1½ for Game

Basketball - 503 Utah Jazz/Portland Trail Blazers over 185½ for Game

$50 to win $21 aren't great odds, but it's OK to make these types of bets if you feel strongly on them. Feels like a gimmie.

Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs +10½ -145 buying 1½ for Game

Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs/Golden State Warriors under 215½ -142 buying 2½ for Game

$30 to win $55 Adjusted 2 team teaser

Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs +9 -105 for Game

Basketball - 505 San Antonio Spurs/Golden State Warriors under 213 -105 for Game

And then I made 2 straight up bets for $40 each to prove to myself I'm not a pussy!

When I first made these bets I really liked the Spurs. After I got done betting on them several different ways, I realized something: these bets on the Spurs might have been a subconscious hedge on the NBA season.

Let me explain: I think the Spurs are the 2nd or 3rd best team in the league. (Clippers being better is nonsense) Losing to OKC last year has thrown everyone off their scent a bit. They are going to be amazing once again this year. So when I saw that the Warriors were favored by 9 points, I was flabbergasted. This is the 2nd best team in the conference, and the Warriors are still favored by 9 points? Jesus Christ. If the Warriors come out and just lay the smackdown on the Spurs tonight, this season will truly be lost and meaningless. And maybe subconsciously my brain didn't want this to happen. Either way, if the Warriors blow out the Spurs I'll be double pissed that I lost a bunch of money and that the season is useless. And I'll be triple pissed because Durant and Green are douchebags. 

Bovada just released a ton of season long over/ under props on players. What I like most about these bets is even if they blow out their knee for the season, it doesn't matter. As long as they play one game the bet qualifies. Here are some of the interesting ones I found:

Steven Adams 9 points a game 

With Durant out Adams is going to have to be leaned on much more offensively than just a rim runner. Reports out of camp is he has been working on a jumper and a floater and that they have been looking good. Won't be shooting 3's, but if he can his a 15-18 footer I see him comfortably averaging 12 points a game. OVER


Will Tristan Thompson still be dating Klohe Kardiasan by end of the season Yes -600 No +275

Don't you love how this is somehow a real bet? No feels like a super good value. If Thompson is having a bad season, Lebron will tell that bitch that not to snitch and get tha stepin.

Gortat rebounds - 9

Gortat will be the opening day starter, with Mahimi out for 4-6 weeks. Once Mahimi comes back I full suspect him to supplant Gortat as the starter. Gortat is much better to be suited as a back up 20 min bench role. Easy UNDER

Russel Westbrook +200 MVP + 230 lead league in ast + 250 to lead league in scoring 

So Vegas has Westbrook having a pretty decent season. He is favored to win the MVP, assists and scoring crowns. Seems pretty crazy to me. Why Lebron isn't the overwhelming favorite for MVP is crazy to me. Lebron hasn't won the MVP in 3 seasons, the Media isn't going to allow that trend to continue, nor they should. The other two are a bit more interesting. Seems unlikely he would win both the scoring and assist titles. Scoring title he should be the favorite, he will most likely lead the league in shot attempts and minutes. Assists will be harder to come by since he is going to be shooting so much, I think John Wall should be the favorite.

Saric 9 points

Saric looks like the real deal. I watched him play in the world championships and he was just such a beast. He is so fluid and skilled on offense, and on defense he is strong enough to not get pushed around and knows where to be on defense. On a team with not a lot of options on offense I think this is another easy over. There is a good chance Saric is the Philly player who wins ROTY OVER

Jeremy lin 15 points

Always been a fan of Linsanity. Wanted the Bucks to get him on the cheap last year. I feel bad for him having to go to pooptastic Brooklyn Nets. He will be their "star" player and will be asked to do everything for them. Especially once Lopez gets moved at the deadline for picks. Even so, I don't think he gets to 16 points a game. He isn't going to be able to handle double teams well, and I think he is going to be more of a passer. UNDER

Matthew Delly points 8.5

Has there ever been a starting PG who played 30 mins a game not gotten to at least 9 points a game?
*Checks basketball reference* In the last 10 years, 267 guards  have played 30 minutes a game. Only 4 players failed to get to 9 points a game. Delly isn't a failure. - OVER


Myles Turner 6.5 rebounds

Under John Hammond the Bucks have earned the following draft picks.
8th
10th
14th
10th
12th
15th
2nd
17th
10th

Some how the one year we aren't picking in the low teens - the draft produces one the best 11, 12, 13 draft picks ever with Turner, Booker, Lyles. UGH. Turner was supposed to be pretty raw, but sure didn't show it last year. Showed flashes of dominance during the regular season and played really well in the playoffs. Now he has been thrusted into the starting C spot. Combined that with Thad Young not being a great rebounder and the Pacers trying to play like Golden State - there will be a ton of rebounding opportunities for him. OVER

Barns 15 points a game

The best bet on the board. I am a big fan of NBA preseason meaning something as it relates to success in the regular season. Barns has been laughably bad. FG 28% 0-10 on 3 pointers and averaging 6.6 points a game. This isn't going to magically turn on in the regular season. POUND POUND POUND the UNDER

Here are some of my predictions for the season.

5 Bold predictions for the season:

- Pacers finish as the 1 seed winning 56 games. MVP will be either Lebron or Paul George, whoever gets the 1 seed wins it.
- Western conference strikes back, 6 or 7 teams win 50 games, only takes 45 wins to be the 5th seed in the east
- Nuggets win 45 games make the playoffs on tie breakers over OKC for 8th seed.
- Devin Booker makes the all star game (probably as an alternate)
- No coaches gets fired after the season

East Standings
Pacers
Cavs
Raptors
Celtics
Hawks
Detroit
Wizards
Bulls

Charlotte
Miami
Bucks
Knicks
Orlando
Nets
76ers

West Standings
GS
Spurs
Blazers
Grizz
Houston
Jazz
Clippers
Nuggets

OKC
Dallas
T Wolves
Suns
Kings
Pelicans
Lakers

Surprises - Pacers, Blazers, Nuggets, Houston
Disappointments - Clippers, Hornets, T-Wolves

MVP voting - 1st Paul George, 2nd Lebron, 3rd Kawhi, 4th Curry, 5th Harden
ROY voting - 1st Embidd 2nd Chriss 3rd Sabonis 4th Heild 5th Murray
6th man - Knight
DPOY - Kawhi
MIP - Crabbe
Surprise player who gets traded - Paul Milsap

ECF Cavs vs Pacers WCF Warriors vs Spurs
Finals Cavs over Warriors , Lebron becomes MJ's equal (wishful thinking?)

Yesterday I bet on Houston@Dallas over 220. The game finished 197. Not even close

When that line was released I first thought holy hell that line is high. I was just about to make a $100 bet on it with out giving it much thought. Right before I placed the bet I thought to myself, maybe I should do more research on this. The line is so fucking high Vegas must be up to some shit. After doing some research and thinking about it, I convinced myself that this line was probably 10 points higher than it should be, but big money players must have bet this line so hard that Vegas is begging people to take the under. This is a prime case of over thinking the situation.

One of my favorite Authors is Malcolm Gladwell and in his book "Blink" he spends a lot of time arguing to go with your gut.

From Wiki a good summery of a point in the book I like

Gladwell mentions that sometimes having too much information can interfere with the accuracy of a judgment, or a doctor's diagnosis. In what Gladwell contends is an age of information overload, he finds that experts often make better decisions with snap judgments than they do with volumes of analysis. This is commonly called "Analysis paralysis." The challenge is to sift through and focus on only the most critical information. The other information may be irrelevant and confusing. Collecting more information, in most cases, may reinforce our judgment but does not help make it more accurate. Gladwell explains that better judgments can be executed from simplicity and frugality of information. If the big picture is clear enough to decide, then decide from this without using a magnifying glass.

Going forward I trust my beer belly to steer me right. With only a couple days of preseason left, I am going to abstain from betting on any of the remaining games. The next couple days I am going to do some previews for the season and write about some early season betting strategies.

1-1 yesterday so not bad from a gambling perspective, but what the hell is up with Orlando??

Now 1-5 in preseason. They play their starters lose by 30 to a Miami team who wasn't playing a bunch of their guys -  Windslow, Whiteside, Babbitt, Richardson, McRoberts. It fun reading the game thread of this game on the Magic board, everyone was catatonic at the fact Dion Waiters was going HAM on them and getting absolutely destroyed. I plan on betting against them early in the season because I don't think people think they might be better than they are. Maybe some of their young guys can turn it around, but going 1-5 in preseason and regularly get crushed is not a great sign.

Tonight I am taking the over 220 in the Dallas/Houston game. My first thought looking at this line, was holy shit that is a high number. But after thinking about it more, vegas is begging you to take the under here. Reports are indicating that the Mavs are treating tonight as a dress rehearsal. With Dallas being favored in this game, my thought is they will have to get to 115 to win this game, and with the way Houston has been playing I think they could get to into the 230's.

Still absolutely killing the spread bets, 2 more wins last night bring me to 10-0 on spread bets this preseason.

I was going to make a 3rd bet last night, that would have won, but just couldn't pull the trigger. It was betting against my beloved Bucks. With how undermanned our roster is - especially if the starters aren't playing big minutes - I really liked Detroit to roll last night. Enough so to contemplate making a $100 bet on it. After giving it much thought, I decided I am not going to bet on Bucks games. This team angers me so much as it is, I don't want to complicate things and confuse my Bucks anger with gambling anger. Even though I will be rooting for the team to tank, I still want to be able to root for the guys on a game by game basis. It kind of is a catch 22, I follow this team closer than any other team, it should give me a better feel for this team for betting purposes. Even so, I am going to swear off from doing from it even if it would benefit me financially. Maybe I will just make predictions on the team and just keep a running total.

For tonight's game I have 2 - $50 bets on the same game - Orlando@Miami. I've got Orlando + 4 1/2 and under 205. (I know, I know, I know too many under bets) Their preseason record so far is 1-4 and I think there will be some impetus on Orlando to try and get this win to avoid falling to 1-5 in preseason.

I also made a heat check 4 team parlay bet - Orlando +4 1/2 and the under and Denver +5 and under 213 @OKC bet $10 for $125.

We will see how hot I am if I can pop that little guy off. Again not using this blog correctly to minimize crazy bets....but FUCK IT I'M HOTTTTTTT!!!

Part of the reason I made this blog was to make myself a more disciplined gambler. And it has been helpful. During the week I have the time to sit down and think through these bets and make the right decision. After another disastrous Saturday 0-2 performance I am going to make the commitment to not bet games on the weekend. My wife and friends need too much attention on the weekends. My wife specifically can't go more than 10 minutes with out getting some sort of attention. I can't blame them though, as I am the absolute nutz to play with.

Last Friday was one of those nights were gambling can crush your soul. In this instance it was softened by the fact that being a Bucks fan is a miserable experience. Let me explain.

John Hambone, the Bucks GM, sold the right's to the 38th pick in the draft to the Golden State Warriors for Pat McCaw. Bucks fans were justifiably angry with this move as the Bucks have one of the worst benches in the league and are in desperate need of talent. Instead of "owning the future" we "Owned 2.4 million dollars." Which we of course we turned around to give Miles fucking Plumlee 52$ million dollars. Mother fuck.

I must digress as I could rant and bitch about the Bucks all day. Why this is relevant is I made a $50 dollar bet on the Nuggets to win at home vs the Golden State Warriors. This bet was +250 and would have won me $125. On Friday I predicted: "I'm banking on the fact that I just love Denver's depth, and I think they will roll the end of Golden State's crap bench." 

Whelp I had it completely backward. Denver's starters outplayed Golden State's starters and Denver's bench pooped away a 15 point lead with 4 minutes to go in the 4th. The reason why I brought up the Bucks was - of course Pat McCaw had to be the guy to go nutzo. He scored 18 points in the final 9 minutes of the game with 4/4 in OT for 10 points ... including a game tying 3 with two seconds left in the 4th quarter to force overtime.... and the go ahead floater with 1.1 seconds left in OT to win the game. UGH.

Steve Kerr after the game - "As soon as we went to the bench, McCaw became the leader. I've watched a lot of games in my life, but I'm not sure if I ever seen someone make a game tying 3 to send it into overtime and then make a buzzer beater in OT to win the game. That just doesn't happen"

So not only did I take a $175 kick in the dick from McCaw going nutz.... my favorite team dealt away a solid SG prospect, for cash, to the team I hate most in the league. Fucking awesome. So instead of being mad at losing money at gambling, I got to be mad at the Bucks. Thanks guys!

****

So there are 3 types of bets I have been making so far: Spread bets, Money Lines, and Over Unders. After evaluating my betting history so far, is what I have come up with.

Spread bets - I am 8-0
Over Under - I am 4-4
Money Lines I am 1-2 (I won't focus on these, as they are game specific, although I think I have made good choices on these so far)

With that in mind, I am going to focus on making spread bets as I haven't lost with those and have been mediocre with over unders. Tonight I have two bet's that I like:

Clips@Jazz - $80 on Jazz -2
Charlotte@Bulls - $60 on Hornets +5

Hopefully I can keep the spread bet steak alive.

Zac Randolph you fat fuck I love you! I have always loved you. With 20 seconds to go last night he bricked a free throw preventing the game I bet on to go over. The other game I bet on was the Kings +3 1/2 and was an easy winner. Those games bring my preseason ATS total to 11-2-1. Pretty awesome record so far.

Bet for tonight is on the Golden State @ Denver game. I have $50 on Denver +7 and $50 on Denver +250 money line. (Those who don't know what money line is, if Denver wins outright, my $50 dollar bet pays 2.5-1 or $125 bucks.)

Another gambling tendency I am trying to correct is.... I LOVE betting against teams I hate. Much to my detriment of course. And I REALLY hate Golden State. I mean I really really loathe them. In my humble opinion, Durant going to Golden State was the biggest pussy move in NBA history. It's not even close. Hate Draymond, hate Curry, hate Klay.... Harden has been my #1 disliked player for a long time... Durant has some how surpassed him. I hope Steven Adams karate kicks Durant and Green and feeds them to a Kangaroo or whatever creatures that come from New Zealand.

So as rationally as I can, I think Denver is in a good spot here. Getting 7 points at home in a preseason game is crazy. Golden State hasn't played in a while, so they might play their starters heavy minutes, which is bad. But I'm banking on the fact that I just love Denver's depth, and I think they will roll the end of Golden State's crap bench.

Bovada has a new interesting prop bet option that I'm not sure what to do with. For regular season win total's, online betting sites don't allow you to parlay multiple bets, however you can parlay teams on answering if a team will make the playoffs or not.

Will this team make the playoffs?

Atlanta Hawks - Yes-260 No+200
Boston Celtics - Yes-5000 No+2000
Brooklyn Nets - Yes+2000 No-5000
Charlotte Hornets - Yes-140 No+110
Chicago Bulls Yes - 145 No+115
Cleveland Cavaliers - Yes-10000 No+300
Dallas Mavericks - Yes+125 No-155
Denver Nuggets - Yes+275 No-350
Golden State Warriors - Yes-10000 No+3000
Houston Rockets - Yes-145 No+115
Indiana Pacers - Yes-275 No+215
Los Angeles Clippers - Yes-3000 No+1500
Los Angeles Lakers - Yes+2000 No-5000
Memphis Grizzlies -  Yes-180 No+150
Miami Heat - Yes+210 No-270
Milwaukee Bucks - Yes+130 No-160
Minnesota Timberwolves - Yes-135 No+105
New Orleans Pelicans - Yes+240 No-300
New York Knicks - Yes EVEN No-130
Oklahoma City Thunder - Yes-200 No+160
Orlando Magic - Yes+155 No-190
Phoenix Suns - Yes+850 No-1700
Portland Trail Blazers - Yes-200 No+160
Sacramento Kings - Yes+500 No-800
SAntonio Spurs - Yes-10000 No+3000
Toronto Raptors - Yes-1900 No+950
Utah Jazz - Yes-300 No+240
Washington Wizards - Yes-165 No+135



It's interesting because you can add teams that are locks to make and not make the playoffs and still give you decent odds.

For example -
Yes - Hawks, Boston, Cavs, Pacers, Toronto
No - Nets, Bucks, Knicks

If you parlay all of those teams it's 5-1 odds. Add in another 50/50 team like Hornets or Wizards it goes to 10-1. 76ers and Detroit aren't on the board, so you can't do all 15 teams in the east, but you can in the West. I'll probably be staring at this for the next 5 hours, so any suggestions would be appreciated.

As the preseason winds down, I just want to mention how I am going to approach the regular season. My goal will be to find one bet I like on a given night, and then watch that game. The next day I plan to write a breakdown of the game. In the preseason it's really tough to accomplish this, as most of the games are not televised. Watching preseason games on crappy illegal internet steams is not fun. I look forward to the regular season and writing more comprehensively about these games.

Tough loss yesterday as the Griz scored 110 and smashed the over. I felt good about the Griz bottling up the 76ers - should have just taken them to win.

For some reason I tend to bet under's. I don't know what it is, but generally if I make a bet on the over under... I look for under's that I like. I'm not sure what it is. It's something I have noticed over the last few years, and really need to shake that habit.

With that being said - 2 more under bets today!

Under Denver@Min 209
Under Milwaukee@Pacers 207

2 More wins! Hot streak continues!

As I wait for the lines to be posted later this morning, I thought I would write about some of the long shots I have money on so far this year.

Pacers to win Eastern Conference - 28-1 for $100
Pacers to win Central Division - 12-1 for $60
Magic to win South East Division 33-1 for $50
Nuggets to win North West Division 30-1 for $5
Magic and Pacers win their division 441-1 for $5
Pacers win Eastern Conference and Magic win division 985-1 for $5

As I mentioned in one of my first posts, I really love Pacers roster this year. Plus, I think after the season Lebron and company just had, there will be a drop off this year. There is no way they are going to be as motivated and locked in for the entire season. Kyrie and Lebron will probably play 60-65 games this year due to random injuries and rest. That opens the door wide open for the Pacers to win 54-58 games and win their division. This Pacers prediction might be a year early, but the odds will be much worse next year after the Pacers prove they are a good team this year.

The Magic bets just jumped out at me as crazy high considering how mediocre their division is.

Hawks 2-1
Wizards 3-1
Heat 3.5-1
Hornets 3.5-1
Magic 33-1 ???

Other people out there must have saw the same thing - now the line is Magic 16-1. But still, that seems crazy high. The teams in this division have serious question marks

The Hawks lost 2 starters in Horford and Teague which is a pretty big deal. They replaced them with D12 - who could either fix their rebounding problems or play 40 games, miss a billion free throws and tank the team. Splitter and Korver are getting up there in age and are dealing with injury issues. Milsap also has some knee issues. Bazemore had a legendary contract year run, could revert back to being a mediocre player.

The Wizards have the only GM in the league worse than the Bucks - Mr. Ernie. In their first preseason game, they were at home to the Miami Heat. In the first half they were down 20 points. I know it's preseason, and Wall didn't play, but you can't have 4 of your opening day starters have a plus/minus of-

Morris -28
Gortat -19
Porter -15
Beal -8

Reminds me of how the Bucks got blown out by 20 + points at home vs Detroit last year. It was a big red flag for our season.

Miami lost Chris Bosh and might have Luke Babbit be the opening day starting PF. Yea, this team has problems.

Charoltte lost both Lin and Courtney Lee and replaced them with Sessions and Belineli - a big downgrade. Adding MKG should help some, but I'm worried about counting on Marvin Williams/Batum to be awesome again after getting paid.

While the moves the Magic made this offseason can certainly be questioned - trading a lottery pick plus a solid player in Oladipo for a UFA in Serge. I think in the short term they will be a much better team. Serge/Biyimbo/Vuc I like a lot as a trio of bigs. It's a great combination of defense/scoring/rebounding. Green signing for 15 mil is a bit odd, gives them another NBA caliber rotation player. Year 3 for Payton and Gordon and they could make a leap. I don't think they are winning a playoff series, but 45 wins could win this division and that's all I need.


As for tonight - I have $65 on the under of 76ers@Griz of 196 1/2. Both teams were bottom 5 in points scored per game last year and I like the Griz to shut down Embiid tonight.

My winning streak had to come to an end eventually. That's what you get when you try and make picks while on the golf course.

With a week of preseason in the books, one thing jumps out at me - home teams are killing road teams. Home teams are 22-10 with an average win by 5.9 points a game. Good for a 68% winning percentage. Just for reference, regular home teams won just 53% last year. Logically it makes sense, home teams have fans they want to please in the stands, so they have some incentive to win. For example, last week while I was watching Jazz @ Suns, Earl Watson put Devin Booker (who started) back into the game with 3 minutes to go to try and win. While the Jazz were content to leave the end of their bench in the game.

With that in mind I took Hornets moneyline -175 at home against the T-Wolves for a cool $100. Couple reasons why I really like this spot. The Hornets are 0-3 - no team wants to go winless in preseason, no matter how much people say preseason doesn't matter. The other reason I like this spot is I think the T-Wolves might be the most overrated team in all of the NBA right now. How Vegas set the over under at 41 wins - I'll never know. As much as I think Towns is the real deal, they are too young and bad to win that many games. My strategy early in the season will be to bet against them.

My other bet for today is for $25 Spurs at Pistons under 196 1/2. Even if the Spurs don't care about playing starters many minutes, they will still want to see the end of their bench play well on defense. This O/U number should be closer to 186 than to 196.

Saturday - bet 25 on the under on the Pacers/Bulls game 207. George wasn't playing and it's Turners first preseason game. I was thinking the Pacers would be more careful on offense and play at a slower pace.

*checks score*

Bulls 2nd quarter - 38 ugh

49-64 at the half. Not looking too good for keeping the streak alive.

Quick post -


This afternoon the over/under for the PHX@Portland was 193 1/2 which I thought was low, so I put 25 on it. I just checked the lines it's at 202 1/2 !!! Holy shit I've never seen a line move so much. Gotta love preseason basketball

2nd post for this Friday

My betting strategy for this year is going to be the strategy I use for blackjack - Positive Progression. In blackjack if you play long enough you will eventually lose - that's just how it goes. My strategy in blackjack is raise or double my bet when I win. The theory is if you can catch a hot string of cards you can walk away winning meaningful money. If you buy in for $100, make a bunch of $10 bets and walk away with $150 - that's ok I guess - but who cares? Not worth my time or effort.

I discussed this with a good friend of mine who also likes using positive progression in black jack a few weeks ago. He is also a degenerate gambler - way worse than me even. He bets on NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, College Football, Golf... pretty much everything besides women's sports, because you gotta draw the line somewhere.  When I approached him about using that strategy for sports betting - he hated it. "blackjack the house has an advantage, with sports betting I know I'm going to win, so I don't need that." Oh, well ok then! I too feel like I can be a consistent winner... but.... I'm not there yet. So I am giving this strategy a shot.

The first 3 straight up bets I made this week were for $25 and the lost parlay was for $15. Up $60.

*Glances at the lines today*
Denver +2 1/2
Lakers - 2 1/2

Huh? In what would should the Lakers be favored in any professional basketball game? With out too much thought I immediately slapped down $50 on Denver. (Part of my haste was the lines just got posted, and yesterday a line I liked a lot moved 3 points in 20 mins and I ended up missing out on a winning bet)

Maybe the $50 was a bit hasty I thought. Sometimes when you see a line that is super fishy - something is up. Maybe Vegas knows something. After more thought - I put down another $25. Denver like the Jazz have just a ton of useful players and are extremely deep and the Lakers are the exact opposite.

The positive progression part at the beginning was probably a post ad hoc justification for my big bet, but whatever - it's my new strategy and I'm sticking to it. Hopefully I'll be able to make a $100 bet tomorrow with my winnings.

So my 2 bets from yesterday were looking good. The Kings +10 1/2 and Kings to win for +465 against Golden State. Kings were up 5 at half and generally hanging tough with Golden State. (Well hanging tough for a preseason game)

The +465 on the Kings to win was looking especially good as the game was winding down. The Kings were up 5 with 3:14 to go in the game. All of the main players for Golden State were out, and you gotta figure the home team would really try and win for the fans and GS wouldn't care too much.

Whelp. This is what I saw as I was following along on the box score play by play.

(Ian Clark makes a 27-foot three-pointer from the left wing assisted by Patrick McCaw) 96-94

Christ that is a really long 3. Keep in mind the 3 point line is 22-23 feet long. Kings turnover leads to...

(Ian Clark makes a 26-foot three-pointer from the top of the arc) 96-97

Ugh another really long 3. Kings throw up a 20 foot brick then...

Patrick McCaw makes a 26-foot three-pointer assisted by Ian Clark 96-100

 Now there is 1:50 left to go in the game. Golden state just went on a 9-0 run in a minute. Even the back ups are hucking 3's like Curry. Kings call a time out. At this point I'm thinking there is fair chance the Kings can still come back only down 4 and make me a winner on my +465 bet. 

Turnover: Foul on Malachi Richardson

Ian Clark offensive rebound and lay up 96-102 1:19 remaining

Ugh ok looks like my Kings win bet is shot, but at least I have the Kings +10 1/2 so it isn't that bad ... well....

James Michael McAdoo makes a 26-foot three-pointer from the right wing assisted by Cameron Jones 50 seconds remain 96-105

!!!!! Another super long 3 pointer! 14-0 run. Now all GS needs is one more basket and I blow both bets from yesterday.

Ian Clark misses a 32-foot three-pointer from the left wing 27 secs left 

I swear to God Ian Clark was trying to kill me in this game. Thankfully after this shot no more points were scored and the Kings cover the 9 point loss. 

The previous games this week I watched on an illegal stream, this game I was just watching the box score update. It can sometimes be more fun to watch games this way. You don't know what's happening, and all of a sudden an update can bring you a ton of joy or panic.

3-0 so far on my straight up bets is pretty good so far, off to good start.  

The Kings absolutely killed me last year.

Going into the season they were routinely killed by the media by all of the terrible off season moves - rightfully so. Long term, the moves were a disaster - especially the pick swap fiasco with Philly. Even so, they made some win now moves that I thought that was going to put them in the conversation for 40 wins. Rondo, Benelli, Kofus were real NBA veterans.  Plus the owner was essentially Herb Kohl 2.0 and was going to do whatever he could to chase the 8th seed.

The over under was 34 1/2 - I loved the over, so I loaded up. What a disaster!! What made it worse was in the middle of the season, it seemed like the Kings were getting ridiculous points spreads, so I kept betting on them during the season. Ugh.

Which brings me to... again rolling with the Kings +10 1/2  against Golden State...and Kings to win for +465. I think this line is way too high for a preseason game. It wouldn't surprise me if Golden State ended up going .500 in preseason. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Joerger was playing starters in the 4th quarter.

I swear I'll finally learn my lesson this time if the Kings lose.

First bet of the year is a winner! Good omen for the season.

Game I bet on for tonight I am less confident in than last night. I am taking the Jazz -2 1/2 in PHX.

Jazz have a ton of players who need minutes in their rotation. In the regular season it will be an ongoing talking point - so and so isn't getting enough minutes or player X is ready for his turn etc. It makes them the perfect preseason team. Even though they lost in Portland the other day, you go down the list of playing time and it looks really solid -

Derrick Favors F	23:31
Gordon Hayward F	18:23
Rudy Gobert C	22:13
Rodney Hood G	22:04
George Hill G	19:10

Bench	Min														Pts
Dante Exum	21:35
Trey Lyles	20:40
Joe Ingles	16:55
Joe Johnson	16:07
Boris Diaw	14:56
Shelvin Mack	12:18
Raul Neto	9:49
Jeff Withey	9:20

Joel Bolomboy	5:20
Chris Johnson	5:20

The top 11 guys all are legit NBA players all fighting for regular minutes on what should be a really good team in the west. Now the last couple guys on the list, I have no clue who they are, but this is just a preseason game, the bets don't really count do they ?