Yesterday I bet on Houston@Dallas over 220. The game finished 197. Not even close

When that line was released I first thought holy hell that line is high. I was just about to make a $100 bet on it with out giving it much thought. Right before I placed the bet I thought to myself, maybe I should do more research on this. The line is so fucking high Vegas must be up to some shit. After doing some research and thinking about it, I convinced myself that this line was probably 10 points higher than it should be, but big money players must have bet this line so hard that Vegas is begging people to take the under. This is a prime case of over thinking the situation.

One of my favorite Authors is Malcolm Gladwell and in his book "Blink" he spends a lot of time arguing to go with your gut.

From Wiki a good summery of a point in the book I like

Gladwell mentions that sometimes having too much information can interfere with the accuracy of a judgment, or a doctor's diagnosis. In what Gladwell contends is an age of information overload, he finds that experts often make better decisions with snap judgments than they do with volumes of analysis. This is commonly called "Analysis paralysis." The challenge is to sift through and focus on only the most critical information. The other information may be irrelevant and confusing. Collecting more information, in most cases, may reinforce our judgment but does not help make it more accurate. Gladwell explains that better judgments can be executed from simplicity and frugality of information. If the big picture is clear enough to decide, then decide from this without using a magnifying glass.

Going forward I trust my beer belly to steer me right. With only a couple days of preseason left, I am going to abstain from betting on any of the remaining games. The next couple days I am going to do some previews for the season and write about some early season betting strategies.