2 More wins! Hot streak continues!

As I wait for the lines to be posted later this morning, I thought I would write about some of the long shots I have money on so far this year.

Pacers to win Eastern Conference - 28-1 for $100
Pacers to win Central Division - 12-1 for $60
Magic to win South East Division 33-1 for $50
Nuggets to win North West Division 30-1 for $5
Magic and Pacers win their division 441-1 for $5
Pacers win Eastern Conference and Magic win division 985-1 for $5

As I mentioned in one of my first posts, I really love Pacers roster this year. Plus, I think after the season Lebron and company just had, there will be a drop off this year. There is no way they are going to be as motivated and locked in for the entire season. Kyrie and Lebron will probably play 60-65 games this year due to random injuries and rest. That opens the door wide open for the Pacers to win 54-58 games and win their division. This Pacers prediction might be a year early, but the odds will be much worse next year after the Pacers prove they are a good team this year.

The Magic bets just jumped out at me as crazy high considering how mediocre their division is.

Hawks 2-1
Wizards 3-1
Heat 3.5-1
Hornets 3.5-1
Magic 33-1 ???

Other people out there must have saw the same thing - now the line is Magic 16-1. But still, that seems crazy high. The teams in this division have serious question marks

The Hawks lost 2 starters in Horford and Teague which is a pretty big deal. They replaced them with D12 - who could either fix their rebounding problems or play 40 games, miss a billion free throws and tank the team. Splitter and Korver are getting up there in age and are dealing with injury issues. Milsap also has some knee issues. Bazemore had a legendary contract year run, could revert back to being a mediocre player.

The Wizards have the only GM in the league worse than the Bucks - Mr. Ernie. In their first preseason game, they were at home to the Miami Heat. In the first half they were down 20 points. I know it's preseason, and Wall didn't play, but you can't have 4 of your opening day starters have a plus/minus of-

Morris -28
Gortat -19
Porter -15
Beal -8

Reminds me of how the Bucks got blown out by 20 + points at home vs Detroit last year. It was a big red flag for our season.

Miami lost Chris Bosh and might have Luke Babbit be the opening day starting PF. Yea, this team has problems.

Charoltte lost both Lin and Courtney Lee and replaced them with Sessions and Belineli - a big downgrade. Adding MKG should help some, but I'm worried about counting on Marvin Williams/Batum to be awesome again after getting paid.

While the moves the Magic made this offseason can certainly be questioned - trading a lottery pick plus a solid player in Oladipo for a UFA in Serge. I think in the short term they will be a much better team. Serge/Biyimbo/Vuc I like a lot as a trio of bigs. It's a great combination of defense/scoring/rebounding. Green signing for 15 mil is a bit odd, gives them another NBA caliber rotation player. Year 3 for Payton and Gordon and they could make a leap. I don't think they are winning a playoff series, but 45 wins could win this division and that's all I need.


As for tonight - I have $65 on the under of 76ers@Griz of 196 1/2. Both teams were bottom 5 in points scored per game last year and I like the Griz to shut down Embiid tonight.